The first half of 2023 was, dare I say it, revolutionary in every sense. In a matter of months, technologies became available, the possibilities of which no one had seriously thought about just a couple of years ago, and if they did, it was only corporations that could afford to reinvest tens of millions of rubles in research and development.
The next six months will be spent testing and implementing technologies in various areas of business, and in 2024 we will see real, new, working areas in products.
Retrospective 2023
At the beginning I lied when I said that there would be no generalizations. No, let's briefly go over the main achievements of the year.
xReal (ex-nReal) have released affordable mixed reality glasses that now use the term spatial computing*. Apple announced the Reality Pro helmet, which set a new vector for the development of spatial computing in affordable consumer electronics. People from Apple announced the Humane AI Pin product, in which GPT was built in (and in return they removed the display).
Spatial Computing - the system is capable of perceiving the surrounding space, analyzing it and interacting with it based on this information.
OpenAI has developed its generative tools to the point where anyone can take the API and start creating AI-based products. All corporations have joined the race (the Russian Federation is still far away). They began to create new lines of business and even products entirely based on AI. Bloomberg predicts market growth to >$1.3 trillion by 2032 (versus $40 billion in 2022).
There's also IoT. Globally, it has 15 billion connected devices today. Devices are becoming smarter and united in ecosystems and clouds. Now even the Apple TV remote can be found using the iPhone. Bicycles and even a Mercedes-Benz with access to ChatGPT have been announced.
In short, the technological singularity has come as close as several doomsday scenarios have in the last 6 months.
Analyzing technologies and the dynamically developing market today, I see several stable trends that will appear in IT sometime next year.
1. Speed and quality of development
The next six months will be spent testing and implementing technologies in various areas of business, and in 2024 we will see real, new, working areas in products.
Retrospective 2023
At the beginning I lied when I said that there would be no generalizations. No, let's briefly go over the main achievements of the year.
xReal (ex-nReal) have released affordable mixed reality glasses that now use the term spatial computing*. Apple announced the Reality Pro helmet, which set a new vector for the development of spatial computing in affordable consumer electronics. People from Apple announced the Humane AI Pin product, in which GPT was built in (and in return they removed the display).
Spatial Computing - the system is capable of perceiving the surrounding space, analyzing it and interacting with it based on this information.
OpenAI has developed its generative tools to the point where anyone can take the API and start creating AI-based products. All corporations have joined the race (the Russian Federation is still far away). They began to create new lines of business and even products entirely based on AI. Bloomberg predicts market growth to >$1.3 trillion by 2032 (versus $40 billion in 2022).
There's also IoT. Globally, it has 15 billion connected devices today. Devices are becoming smarter and united in ecosystems and clouds. Now even the Apple TV remote can be found using the iPhone. Bicycles and even a Mercedes-Benz with access to ChatGPT have been announced.
In short, the technological singularity has come as close as several doomsday scenarios have in the last 6 months.
Analyzing technologies and the dynamically developing market today, I see several stable trends that will appear in IT sometime next year.
1. Speed and quality of development
There were times when double resources were spent on programming and it was considered (for some reason) a fashionable phenomenon. I'm talking about pair programming, aka 2.0 FTE from a business perspective.
Already now, in progressive companies, the development of a single piece of code is accelerated by 30 to 50%, where Github Copilot and ChatGPT take on the bulk of it. Market benchmark – minimum +30% speed.
Developers create fewer bugs because the code is validated by artificial intelligence.
It was once considered normal to know the Airbnb JavaScript Style Guide. In 2024, the ability to write code supported by AI tools will become the norm. Even a mandatory requirement.
2. AI Assessment / Recruiting / HR
Fast decision-making speed in hiring, assessment, review. In 2024, services and tools for sourcing, selection, hiring and assessment will begin to implement AI functionality. The candidate indicated a link to Github in the resume - the service automatically and instantly analyzed the code and issued its rating. The call is transcribed and the AI will fill out the candidate's card with strengths and weaknesses. And so on.
There will be a demand for AI-assisted assessment and decision-making platforms. Candidate scoring will change forever. GPT will be able to go online and quickly check facts. The “artificial intelligence fired me” scenario will become a reality.
3. Decision Making
Already now, in progressive companies, the development of a single piece of code is accelerated by 30 to 50%, where Github Copilot and ChatGPT take on the bulk of it. Market benchmark – minimum +30% speed.
Developers create fewer bugs because the code is validated by artificial intelligence.
It was once considered normal to know the Airbnb JavaScript Style Guide. In 2024, the ability to write code supported by AI tools will become the norm. Even a mandatory requirement.
2. AI Assessment / Recruiting / HR
Fast decision-making speed in hiring, assessment, review. In 2024, services and tools for sourcing, selection, hiring and assessment will begin to implement AI functionality. The candidate indicated a link to Github in the resume - the service automatically and instantly analyzed the code and issued its rating. The call is transcribed and the AI will fill out the candidate's card with strengths and weaknesses. And so on.
There will be a demand for AI-assisted assessment and decision-making platforms. Candidate scoring will change forever. GPT will be able to go online and quickly check facts. The “artificial intelligence fired me” scenario will become a reality.
3. Decision Making
4. Personalized education
As long as the education industry has existed, as many people have been talking about the need for an individual approach to learning. In Ancient Greece, the education of boys began at the age of 7, when he was transferred to a special slave-teacher, who taught the student individually.
In 2024, EdTech will begin the year with the evolution of platforms: companies will begin to implement generative tools that will continuously analyze behavior and modify content based on the learning characteristics of a particular student.
Platforms that provide course creation tools will implement GPT into their content creation interfaces. The entire structure and content will be created by artificial intelligence for the author; the expert will only need to enter the main meanings and his sacred knowledge into the system.
5. Smart search
Retail, E-Commerce and search engines will begin (some have already begun) to modify their search engines by introducing AI. Services that provide search engines to large retail and e-commerce will add an AI component to their products, which will allow them to understand natural language in queries. This will allow you to select high-quality products for abstract requests, such as “a white T-shirt with a cool print so that it is not hot at +30.”
In a conditional Scooter, you can dictate to the built-in voice assistant something like “I want to cook delicious vegetarian borscht,” and the system will fill the basket with ingredients and even create a recipe for this borscht, taking into account the products added to the basket.
6. Shopping
The user experience in e-commerce will change qualitatively. The AI will remember and analyze the history of smart searches and take this into account when personalizing recommendations. GPT, built into marketplaces, food delivery services and cafe and restaurant applications, will analyze preferences on-the-fly.
The new e-com trend will be AI personalization of user experience.
Thanks to the development of spatial computing, it will be possible to try on, order, and customize purchases without getting out of bed. Once upon a time, IKEA released an application in which you can try on how a bedside table would fit into your interior. In 2024, this will be available to any digitalized e-comm.
As long as the education industry has existed, as many people have been talking about the need for an individual approach to learning. In Ancient Greece, the education of boys began at the age of 7, when he was transferred to a special slave-teacher, who taught the student individually.
In 2024, EdTech will begin the year with the evolution of platforms: companies will begin to implement generative tools that will continuously analyze behavior and modify content based on the learning characteristics of a particular student.
Platforms that provide course creation tools will implement GPT into their content creation interfaces. The entire structure and content will be created by artificial intelligence for the author; the expert will only need to enter the main meanings and his sacred knowledge into the system.
5. Smart search
Retail, E-Commerce and search engines will begin (some have already begun) to modify their search engines by introducing AI. Services that provide search engines to large retail and e-commerce will add an AI component to their products, which will allow them to understand natural language in queries. This will allow you to select high-quality products for abstract requests, such as “a white T-shirt with a cool print so that it is not hot at +30.”
In a conditional Scooter, you can dictate to the built-in voice assistant something like “I want to cook delicious vegetarian borscht,” and the system will fill the basket with ingredients and even create a recipe for this borscht, taking into account the products added to the basket.
6. Shopping
The user experience in e-commerce will change qualitatively. The AI will remember and analyze the history of smart searches and take this into account when personalizing recommendations. GPT, built into marketplaces, food delivery services and cafe and restaurant applications, will analyze preferences on-the-fly.
The new e-com trend will be AI personalization of user experience.
Thanks to the development of spatial computing, it will be possible to try on, order, and customize purchases without getting out of bed. Once upon a time, IKEA released an application in which you can try on how a bedside table would fit into your interior. In 2024, this will be available to any digitalized e-comm.
Moreover, services will begin to appear that will offer personalized products for you personally: selection of clothes, intelligent vacation planning, even real-time styling of renovations and selection of furniture.
7. Knowledge bases
7. Knowledge bases
In 2024, the approach to working with knowledge bases will completely change. A useful feature in large language models is the ability to digitize the knowledge base and communicate with it using natural language.
It will be enough to download the accumulated historical data and provide an input interface for it. This is what Morgan Stanley did, for example: they digitized their knowledge of more than 100 years and created a chat on GPT-4 in which you can ask questions in natural language and get answers.
Platforms will begin to appear en masse, providing for pennies (1 ruble per message?) the opportunity to digitize internal documents and give access to employees.
8. Automation of communications
The SalesGPT architecture demonstrates the potential and capabilities of using GPT in automatic, personalized communication with leads, clients, and users.
It will be enough to download the accumulated historical data and provide an input interface for it. This is what Morgan Stanley did, for example: they digitized their knowledge of more than 100 years and created a chat on GPT-4 in which you can ask questions in natural language and get answers.
Platforms will begin to appear en masse, providing for pennies (1 ruble per message?) the opportunity to digitize internal documents and give access to employees.
8. Automation of communications
The SalesGPT architecture demonstrates the potential and capabilities of using GPT in automatic, personalized communication with leads, clients, and users.
Products in which automatic communication was built linearly will become a thing of the past. The new trend will be products with GPT in voice bots and messengers, which, under the guise of a real person, are the first to make contact, independently qualify, find out the need, details, and close for a meeting/call. Moreover, they understand the context and dynamically adapt to it.
Separately, the technologies already exist: GPT, Whisper, LangChain, TTS engines - all that remains is to connect them together.
9. Truly smart assistants
Separately, the technologies already exist: GPT, Whisper, LangChain, TTS engines - all that remains is to connect them together.
9. Truly smart assistants
In 2023, even Yandex managed to add GPT to Alice. Enthusiasts began releasing open-source AutoGPT and BabyAGI* architectures. Further more.
BabyAGI is a task-driven system designed to create, prioritize and execute tasks based on the results of previous tasks.
Multimodality in ChatGPT is just a proof-of-concept. I see OpenAI's (and others) master plan to develop a realistic J.A.R.V.I.S. In 2024, multimodality will reach a new level and we will see niche AI assistants supporting a variety of scenarios.
For example, a business assistant: Create content, find information, format it, package it into a presentation, write a cover letter, find the decision maker’s email and send it there. In ChatGPT Plus with the Zapier plugin, you can already repeat the scenario in some form.
What if you add voice control and remove the input delay?
Moreover, simple offline GPTs are already appearing. I think next year we will see full-fledged products that will work on any device, even without Internet access.
conclusions
Bill Gates once said, “If your business is not on the Internet, you are not in business.” 2024 and beyond can be characterized by a new quote:
If a business does not use AI, it is not competitive
Oleg Lupikov, co-founder of Postilla and Hook Digital
Every digital product, SaaS or iPhone application will, in one way or another, be implemented internally or externally.
This is my vision of the immediate development of IT. I am testing demand for such solutions among my clients and seeing growing interest. What will the respected expert community of vc.ru say?
BabyAGI is a task-driven system designed to create, prioritize and execute tasks based on the results of previous tasks.
Multimodality in ChatGPT is just a proof-of-concept. I see OpenAI's (and others) master plan to develop a realistic J.A.R.V.I.S. In 2024, multimodality will reach a new level and we will see niche AI assistants supporting a variety of scenarios.
For example, a business assistant: Create content, find information, format it, package it into a presentation, write a cover letter, find the decision maker’s email and send it there. In ChatGPT Plus with the Zapier plugin, you can already repeat the scenario in some form.
What if you add voice control and remove the input delay?
Moreover, simple offline GPTs are already appearing. I think next year we will see full-fledged products that will work on any device, even without Internet access.
conclusions
Bill Gates once said, “If your business is not on the Internet, you are not in business.” 2024 and beyond can be characterized by a new quote:
If a business does not use AI, it is not competitive
Oleg Lupikov, co-founder of Postilla and Hook Digital
Every digital product, SaaS or iPhone application will, in one way or another, be implemented internally or externally.
This is my vision of the immediate development of IT. I am testing demand for such solutions among my clients and seeing growing interest. What will the respected expert community of vc.ru say?
